Yes, I'd say you have a fairly good "chance for unemployment insurance." Really, there is no point in your deciding beforehand whether or not you're going to file a claim or whether you'll be approved for unemployment insurance or asking us for a specific law that if it is xyz compared to zyx plus tips, that's not or is an appropriate demotion, any more than that and it's not and you'll be approved....etc.
Frankly, there's NEVER a guarantee you'll be approved for benefits or denied for benefits (as long as you qualify monetarily, which means you have wages in the last six quarters from unemployment tax paying employers sufficient to set up a claim.)
What it amounts to is, it was legal for them to fire you (or permanently suspend you, which is actually fired of course!) for just about any reason and it is legal for them to offer you a demotion instead of firing you. Whether or not your on the job actions amounted to misconduct, they can walk in and decide to demote or terminate you at any time, they don't have to have a good reason to fire or demote you, they can do it "at will."
The only place where cause or actual misconduct would be an issue is in unemployment insurance because though they can fire you for any reason (or demote you) the employer must prove, if they fire you that they had a vaild misconduct reason to fire you, or else you will qualify for unemployment insurance while looking for another job and as I mentioned, this costs them money.
If you quit the job, (by not accepting the demotion) you must prove, and it is a bit harder, but not impossible, that you had a valid reason to quit the job, that you had made a reasonable effort to resolve the problem and that they were leaving you with no good choice except to quit the job. They are trying to force you to quit by offering you a less desirable job with less pay.
As far as being an exact amount of wage lowering, or a specific number of hours they have to cut you by to show that, that's not really as clear cut as to give you any guarantees. The agency will look at it, try to determine if it was an "appropriate" demotion done for business purposes.
But the agency knows the employer does NOT want to pay unemployment. They will look at the nature and reasonableness of the demotion, what you were told by the employer and what happened beforehand. (For instance, they'll determine that this demotion is not due to a business reason, like because their business is poor, this is a direct retaliation against you personally because of something they were displeased about that you've done.)
They've chosen to do this to you instead of firing you in the hopes that you'll quit and thus not be able to receive unemployment benefits. In other words, they're hoping you'll just go away. That kind of jumps out at the examiner, doesn't it?
File a claim immediately and let it play out. You have nothing to lose by this. It will take a while, six or eight weeks for a first decision and for you to start receiving any unemployment insurance if you are approved. And if you are approved, of course, it will end totally in six months or so, whether or not you have another job. It's not meant to be a needs based program, which means they don't care how bad you need it or how low income you may be.
It is insurance that is paid if the agency determines you are out of work through no fault of your own, in that you had a valid work related reason to quit this job, namely your demotion. There's no way you can pre predict and guarantee what the agency will decide, but one thing is for sure. If you shamble around and accept the demotion, you need to stay at it till you find something else, because after having worked at the new position, your chances of getting unemployment fall to just about none.
